Why India must treat US trade deal as a temporary reprieve; it is not for keeps

Now that more details are emerging on the India-US framework agreement on tariffs, the best one can say about it is that it can never be the final word. What we need to accept is that this is what we could salvage in the current context of massive global disruptions precipitated by Donald Trump. Conclusion: we must treat the framework as temporary, and subject to regular reviews and even abandonment, if necessary, when the time comes.

The framework is temporary for three reasons.

One, there is nothing final about Trump’s decision, and he can turn on a dime if he has gotten up from the wrong side of the bed one day. We cannot know what the second half of 2026 will bring in American politics, especially if the Republican party faces political reverses in next November’s mid-term elections, and the US Supreme Court circumscribes Trump’s ability to write his own personal trade rules. Even assuming Trump lasts his full term, India should seriously consider the option to withdraw or not implement the whole of the framework agreement if it veers too far towards becoming one-sided in favour of America. More so when Trump seems inclined to insult his trade partners even while calling them his “dear” friends. We also need to reckon with the probability that by now the US Deep State has figured out how to manage Trump. Consider how quickly the US pivoted towards Pakistan after Operation Sindoor. Consider also how quickly it has now agreed to give Bangladesh a more favourable trade deal on textiles, even though it is true that Bangladesh is more willing to be a US stooge than India.

Two, the trade agreement is no longer about just trade. It is now being used to circumscribe India’s ability to make choices on everything from crude purchases to digital taxes - something which cannot ultimately be in our interest. Trump cannot be relied on to understand India’s sensitivities, especially on our long-standing relationship with Russia. India cannot have any interest in a diminished Russia, not least because we are situated in Asia, where the dominant power is China. We need  Russia to balance China, and Russia too needs us for the same reason. It’s not just about selling us more oil or defence equipment. Russia does not want to get fully into a Chinese orbit, just as India does not want to be fully kowtowing to the US. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has already flagged the US effort to arm-twist India into weakening its Russian ties. This is as much a message for us as the US. We must move to reassure Russia.

Third, India’s best interests are served when we can leverage both China and the US to improve our economic strengths, but both China and the US have limited interest in allowing India to rise too soon. We need Chinese supply chains to come to India so that our manufacturing sector is benefited. We need the US for high technology and its large market for goods and services. Without China or the US, India’s growth would be much slower, but even with them it would be a hard task as our challenges are internal - an under-reformed economy with too many constraints on growth and jobs. The US and China silently agree on one thing: they would ideally like to slow us down, and would prefer a weaker Indian government run by a coalition that suits them.

As Ajay Srivastava, a trade expert, wrote in The Times of India (11 February, 2026), India has conceded more than the US in the trade deal, and the latter also seeks to direct India towards vassalhood. He writes: “The deal delivers immediate export relief, but at the cost of deeper commitments on energy, digital policy and strategic alignment. As negotiations move forward, India must now ensure that short-term gains do not harden into long-term constraints.”    

The external affairs secretary, Vikram Misri, told the parliamentary affairs committee led by Shashi Tharoor, that the trade deal was the most realistic one available in the current geopolitical circumstances. 

That says it all. All the more reason why, while allowing the short-term benefits to happen, we must not lose focus on making changes when that becomes possible. If we are tied down, it may be time to opt out. The framework deal is temporary at best. We must use that time to strengthen ourselves internally.