How Iran has practically validated Pakistan's scorched-earth anti-India strategy: We should worry

 There is an evocative Hindi phrase that best describes the Pakistani mindset on India. Hum to doobenge sanam, tumko bhi le dubenge. It means, I may drown, but I will take you down with me. The Pakistani establishment, especially its armed forces, gets its jollies not from improving the lot of its own people, but from hurting India any which way it can. In a war, it seeks not to win (which, given its relative size, cannot be a realistic goal), but to damage India as much as possible.

This attitude was on display clearly recently when Abdul Basit, a former envoy to India, said that in a hypothetical situation where America tries to take down Pakistan’s nukes, Pakistan may not be able to take on Uncle Sam, but would hit India instead.

He is quoted in The Times of India as saying to a Pakistani news channel: “If somebody casts an evil eye on us, we will attack Mumbai and Delhi in India without even thinking twice. We will see whatever happens later.” Quite clearly, this attitude may not be restricted only to a US attack on its nukes; it could happen even if Pakistan’s army sees itself as being under an existential threat from anybody, including Afghanistan, or if the Baloch look like winning freedom from Pakistan.

The Pakistani mindset was discussed most clearly in a book by C Christine Fair, Fighting To the End: The Pakistani Army’s Way of War. She gained this insight by talking to many senior officers in the Pakistani army, which is the institution that decides what happens with India. She says that Kashmir is often stated to be the issue that prevents peace with India, but even if India were to do the unthinkable and hand over Kashmir, the Pakistani army’s focus on hurting India will never go away. Getting Kashmir will be seen as a validation of its strategy, not a road to peace. Without this inbuilt hostility, the Pakistani army would lose its raison d’etre.

In the 1980s, when Pakistan had begun enriching uranium to build its own nuclear bomb, the Israelis were worried and offered to jointly strike its nuclear plant in Kahuta along with India. The reports are that Indira Gandhi considered the offer but later decided against it because it would mean a long-drawn war with Pakistan. The Americans are also said to have tipped off Pakistan, which then indirectly threatened strikes with its newly-acquired F16s. India chickened out, but it probably made sense. As the Iran case shows, one hit on Kahuta would not have deterred Pakistan from pursuing its nuclear ambitions. Iran did not give up its nuclear pursuits despite years of economic sanctions and repeated attacks by Israel on its nuclear programme, including the assassination of some key scientists and the injection of viruses into its centrifuges. Pakistan hates India enough to carry on despite setbacks.

In the ongoing Israel-US war against Iran, the Pakistani strategy appears to have been indirectly validated, with Donald Trump now seeking to end the war as Iran has chosen to attack its own Arab neighbours who may have had any hand in instigating the war. The economic damage inflicted by Iran on the Gulf nations of UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and even Saudi Arabia, not to speak of the rest of the world, is giving the Americans cause for pause. If Pakistan wanted any evidence that its own strategy of attacking India no matter what the provocation and from whom, it has got one.

The fact is Pakistan is not a normal state, and its reason for existence, especially its army, is extreme and unremitting enmity to India. Pakistan, says Christine Fair in her book, sees defeat in war as not particularly important; what is important to it is to damage India as much as it can.

India, for its part, must take this dimension of Pakistan wanting to cripple the economy as central to its war strategy. It will not be a war between armies and navies and air forces. It will be about ruining India’s growth story - a cause of endless envy and heartburn in Pakistan. 

We simply have to devise much better ways to contain Pakistan, and find cheaper and more economical ways of derisking and defending our economic assets in Mumbai, Delhi, Gujarat and southern India. We have to also reckon with the half-front of sleeper cells in the country, who may be capable of internal sabotage.

Long after the Iran war is over, India has to worry about the existence of an even more irrational neighbour in south Asia. Israel and Iran do not share a border, but the atavistic enmity between Jew and Muslim, Israel and Shia Iran, has been enough to make them mortal enemies. Pakistan is Iran Squared when it comes to India. We should worry. Countries with something to lose are always vulnerable to countries that have lilttle to lose.