No matter who wins West Bengal, the Winner's Curse will be difficult to avoid

The high voting percentage (92.6 percent) in the first phase of the West Bengal elections could be the result of two factors: first, the clean-up of the electoral rolls with the removal of dead, duplicate and migrated voters, with several lakh voters still to be reinstated after hearings at the appellate tribunals; and second, the extraordinary nature of the challenge being mounted by the BJP this time and the very high level of security being provided to voters to vote without fear.

High voter turnouts have traditionally meant a desire for change, but this time that would be too simplistic an assessment: it could also have driven a high turnout of Trinamool voters and its support base which may fear retribution in case the other side comes to power. After all, this is what they did in 2021, when it was the BJP that lost. Why should they expect any different if the BJP comes to power?

The first phase is where the BJP recorded its best performance in 2021, and the second phase is where Mamata Banerjee wiped out the BJP challenge. So, whatever be the outcome in the first phase, it may not be decisive, though the yearning for change seems palpable.

But here’s the dismal truth: no matter who wins, West Bengal is unlikely to benefit. The ruling party will invariably have to deal with the Winner’s Curse.

West Bengal has had a long history of economic decline, a decline which was exacerbated by the 34-year rule of the anti-business Left Front, followed by the takeover of the same forces by Trinamool Congress. When the underlying fundamentals don’t change, and especially when politics is so polarising and violence-prone, it is unlikely that the state will see any new kinds of thinking. Whoever wins will spend more time worrying about retaining power than thinking about reforms or law and order.

Let’s speculate on what will happen if the Trinamool wins. In 2021, despite a huge win, when it could have afforded to take a benign view of the opposition, its cadres unleashed a wave of violence against the BJP’s workers. Also, despite a massive majority in the assembly, no real reforms were undertaken to make the state more competitive where it can attract fresh investment. What is the chance that a much-weakened Trinamool, facing a much stronger BJP, will have any better appetite for reform?

Worse, the institutions that are crying for reform – the bureaucracy and the law-and-order machinery – have been so emasculated that they now take orders from politicians rather than follow the constitution. In no state has the administrative machinery been as compromised as in West Bengal. A weakened Mamata will thus need those same private enforcers to maintain any kind of hold on the administration.

Now, let us suppose it is the BJP that squeaks through to victory. How will it do any better when Didi, after a brief withdrawal from public posturing to lick her wounds, returns to the streets in order to weaken the BJP politically? Didi has, if anything, the ability to take to the streets, and it is highly unlikely that she is going to allow the BJP to settle down and get positive things done. Also, a BJP in power will enable the Left, the Congress and several Islamist parties to gain political traction, making it very difficult for the BJP to run an effective administration. It is not unlikely that the BJP, just as the Trinamool did after ousting the Left in 2011, will take control of the same unlawful local mafia forces to run its administration.

No matter who wins, the Winner’s Curse will be upon the victor. West Bengal may continue to suffer.

The only way to fix this is to impose a prolonged spell of President’s rule in the state so that both the police and the bureaucracy can be retrained, reinforced and reoriented to do their job, and not look to politicians for orders on what to do. No one can bet that the BJP-led Union government has any stomach to do this, no matter which party is in power in the state. 

A sobering thought for the Trinamool is that a win does not mean positive  endorsement by the voter. For the BJP, a win only means that the voter wanted the Trinamool gone, and this does not mean an endorsement of its likely policies. With such wins, nobody really wins.