Welcome to the Midi Powers Club, Mark Carney, and thanks for speaking the truth at last

Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, made a remarkable speech at Davos, where the World Economic Forum (WEF) has been in session. Shorn of nuances, it sounds almost exactly like how India would frame its choices and actions in today's world - or even the one that was gradually emerging before Donald Trump took over and made things nasty.

The three main points Carney made were the following:

One, there is no point pretending that the rules-based order still prevails. The rules-based order exists only to the extent one is willing to subordinate one's will to that of the hegemons. He said it simply. We must accept reality and "stop invoking rules-based international order as though it still functions as advertised. Call it what it is - a system of intensifying great power rivalry, where the most powerful pursue their own interests, using economic integration as coercion." (Read the full text of his comments here).

Two, while it would be sensible for all countries to depend more on their own resources for growth, the new world needs to build a fairer system of interdependence which retains a fair amount of sovereignty in the hands of countries. Total atmanirbharta is not optimal. He said: "Collective investments in resilience are cheaper than everyone building their own walls. Shared standards reduce fragmentations. Complementarities are positive sum. And the question for middle powers like Canada is not whether to adapt to the new reality - we must. The question is whether we adapt by simply building higher walls or whether we can do something more ambitious." By this he meant opening trade and other opportunities with non-hegemons.

Three, the new world order calls for multiple alignments among those willing to move on specific issues, rather than believing that everyone has to agree on everything. And the people who can make this happen are the middle powers who are most impacted by the two superpowers, the legacy hegemon, and the emerging one, hyperscaling China. Carney made it clear that while the middle powers cannot but adapt to the power of the hegemons, collectively they have much greater bargaining power. He put it succinctly: "...the middle powers must act together, because if we are not at the table, we're on the menu".

Using a new phrase, "variable geometry", Carney said: "...we are rapidly diversifying abroad. We have agreed a comprehensive economic partnership with the EU, including SAFE, the European defence procurement arrangements. We have signed 12 other trade and security deals on four continents in six months. The past few days we've concluded new strategic partnership with China and Qatar. We're negotiating free trade pacts with India, ASEAN, Thailand, Philippines and Mercosur (the Latin American FTA). We are (also) doing something else. To help solve global problems, we are pursuing variable geometry. In other words, different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests."

I suggest that all Indians should read the full text of Mark Carney's speech. If nothing else, we will learn to articulate our vision more coherently, and not mumble things that sound too arrogant for the world to understand.

After happily coexisting in America's shadow, Canada has now begun speaking the language of India and BRICS (outside China, that is). A kick in the butt from Donald Trump has obviously woken Carney up, as it has the major leaders of the European Union, but better late than ever. 

More specifically, India must see the new Canada as part of theemerging middle powers action group which wants to preserve what is worth preserving in the old global order, and build better institutions for the future, where rules do not apply (and arbitrarily) only to the weak, and can be interpreted by hegemons and hyperscalers (a code for China) for their own benefit.

What Carney said reflects some new thinking outside the US and China, a thought process that was articulated earlier by Finnish President Alexander Stubb last year. Stubb said that the existing global order was unfair and must reflect the new geopolitical and economic realities. About the UN, he said India should definitely be in the Security Council, and also that no country, howsoever powerful, should have a veto. 

We must thank Trump for clarifying things in the minds of people like Carney and Stubb, not to speak of the European Union. India must lose no time to harness these new winds to start building the new, fairer, and more inclusive world order.

And yes, if Carney can achieve so much in six months, why is India taking eons to get the same things done? Of course, we must recognise that diverse India is much harder to move at speed than Canada, but still we have to move faster than we ever did before.