2029 battle has already begun: neither UP in 2027 nor LS in 2029 will be a slam dunk for BJP

It is just over a month since the last round of state assembly elections ended, but we are already back in election mode. The two-and-a-half years left before the next round of general elections are announced will be intensely political and confrontational. There may be no respite.

In 2027, we have the big contest in Uttar Pradesh, not to speak of Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, followed later in the year by Himachal and Gujarat. In 2028, we will have Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and, towards the end of the year, Telangana. Most of these are big states, and then there are the smaller north-eastern states of Nagaland, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram. The stakes are sky-high for all parties, especially the BJP and Congress. And we cannot forget the presidential elections, for which the BJP seems reasonably well-placed right now.

The election that will determine the immediate mood is Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP has to retain its majority for the third time and could face some anti-incumbency. The Congress and Samajwadi Party (SP) seem to be fully charged-up and will try their damnedest to create an upset here, just as they did in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The SP has already offered Rs 40,000 to underprivileged women, even as both SP and Congress are salivating at the possibility of putting the BJP on the backfoot over the alleged siphoning of funds at the Ram temple. 

Uttar Pradesh is key not only because it sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, but because what happens here will send signals on the national mood to the rest of India in 2029. 

The BJP knows that it has to win UP if it is to stand a chance of getting a majority in 2029. Which is why it is aggressively pushing the women’s reservation and delimitation agenda by seeking a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha by enabling the breakup of the three parties that neutered the previous attempt in April 2026 along with the Congress: SP, Trinamool and DMK. Since then, the DMK may be more amenable to overtures from the BJP, having been ousted in Tamil Nadu. Trinamool has split vertically, and so has the Shiv Sena. Only SP has stood strong, possibly as it feels it is in with a chance in 2027. 

The BJP is pushing both women’s reservation and delimitation because it will need to re-draw constituencies to make the voter composition more favourable to itself, especially in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In theory, it could legislate women’s reservation even within the existing Lok Sabha strength of 543 - which the opposition is willing to back - but any carve-up in 543 means the BJP’s own sitting MPs will lose more seats to women than the other parties. Which is why it is not only willing to give proportionate 50 percent increases in seats to all states - something which comes at the cost of its own base in the north. The populous Hindi belt should get a larger share of seats in any population-based delimitation, but the BJP is willing to pass up this opportunity for a permanent majority in the north in order to bag 2029. A proportionate increase in seats will reduce southern opposition to the delimitation exercise. If the delimitation amendment passes, the BJP will be on a stronger wicket.

However, the BJP cannot count its chickens before they hatch as the Congress is playing its cards far better than in 2024 or 2019.

There are now clear signs that the Congress is getting more aggressive in its strategy. Its three prongs are the following:

One, focus on getting the bulk of the southern seats. Its sudden switch from DMK to Tamizaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) after the former’s loss shows that it hopes to benefit from actor Joseph Vijay’s rising political traction. The change in Karnataka, where Siddaramaiah was replaced by DK Shivakumar, the party strategist and money-raiser, is intended to send the message that winning matters. Shivakumar has already delivered by getting some BJP MLAs to cross-vote in the Karnataka Rajya Sabha elections. The party hopes to get the bulk of the seats in Kerala and Telangana, and will seek to make gains in Andhra, where it could ultimately team up with the YSR Congress.

Two, the northern and north-eastern prongs are key to any material gains over the 99 seats it won in 2024. The party will go hell for leather in UP (with SP and smaller parties), and also try to regain Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, if possible. One should expect Congress state leadership changes before the 2028 assembly elections in these three states. In West Bengal, one can expect the party to create a front that includes both the Left and Trinamool in order to push back the BJP tide. In Bihar, hopefully, the exit of Nitish Kumar could give the RJD-Congress combine a better chance of gaining seats compared to 2024, and in Maharashtra, the Congress will seek to get the NCP back on its side, but the Shiv Sena will probably return to the BJP side as a stronger and more unified party under Eknath Shinde. The BJP will have to cede the same number of seats to Sena as it did in 2024 despite the party’s split. Punjab looks like a four-way fight, between AAP, Congress, BJP and Akali Dal, though the latter two may still combine to gain seats. In the north-east, the Congress could gain seats, especially in states like Manipur, where sectarian violence is still not contained and the BJP could lose traction. 

Three, the other prong will be massive promises of cash guarantees, never mind what damage they may do to the fisc.

The BJP, which has sealed the internal cracks in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra that cost it a majority in 2024, is hoping the delimitation and women’s reservation amendments will get it over the majority mark in 2029, but it is making the same mistake the Congress did in 2014: targeting one man too much. That time it was Narendra Modi, this time the BJP is targeting Rahul Gandhi - to the latter’s advantage. By targeting Rahul, the BJP is indirectly sending the signal that he is the man to beat in 2029.

No side is going to give the other any quarter, which means we are headed for extreme politics between now and 2029. The likely monsoon failure will add to the BJP’s cup of woes. Economic reforms will return to stealth mode and major legislative action is unlikely.