What we even doing in the Quad? India must quietly redraw its red lines with the US, quietly and firmly

One has said this before, and one must say it again: there is no rogue state more roguish than the United States of America. No global laws or rules apply to it, but all laws and rules it seeks to impose on the rest of the world will apply to everybody, unless the other party happens to have the power to say no. At this point, only China and Russia seem to have this ability. India’s first focus must be to achieve this degree of sovereignty based on underlying national economic and political power.

India found out, again to its discomfiture, that the US will impose its will without even feigning to be diplomatic about it. After killing three Indians on a vessel that apparently did not comply with the US blockade on Iran, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not so much as express regret over the loss of lives.

India’s relatively poor power position vis-à-vis the US is primarily the result of a few weaknesses and dependencies:

One, our dependence on the vast US goods and services markets, which make it impossible to stand up for our own interests without serious loss of domestic jobs and growth. This is what made India silently absorb the nonsense spewed at us over the last one year, from Donald Trump to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to Peter Navarro to now even Rubio (though Rubio is unlikely to have abused India).  

Two, our dependence on US capital markets. platforms and technology. We are over-dependent on US capital for managing our balance of payments, as is now the case with the Reserve Bank’s efforts to facilitate foreign commercial borrowings and foreign currency non-resident deposits by absorbing the currency forward cover costs substantially. These inflows to stabilise the rupee can easily be derailed by the US if it so wants.

The US recently barred AI firm Anthropic from sharing Mythos 5 and Fable 5 with foreign nationals or companies, making this yet another weaponised technology that India cannot depend on.

Three, our dependence on American engines for our fighter aircraft, especially GE’s F404 and (in future) the F 414 engines which are needed for the advanced fighter aircraft planned later.  GE has already failed to deliver on its promises, and we have imposed costs on them, but it won’t make a difference to them.

 

One can cite many more examples, but America under Trump has become a very unreliable security and economic partner. It is not just indifferent or neutral to Indian interest; it is actively sabotaging them. The US should be considered a security threat to India as it is capable of weaponising all our dependencies.

India’s policies vis-à-vis the US should, therefore be clear.

First, all present and future Indo-US deals must be considered only transactional in nature. One-offs. There can be no long-term partnerships without America agreeing to a balanced set of rules that we can also agree on, and these must involve costs that can be imposed on the US if it fails to deliver. Since the US probably will not agree to a fair deal, we must treat each deal as separate. This includes the likely trade deal. We should not work too hard for it, in the process giving them even more leverage over us.  

Second, we must impose a ban on our bureaucrats and politicians with wards studying or working the US and compel them to declare these dependencies. They must be told to declare how these have been financed. We simply have too many Indians in positions of power here who are being compromised by Uncle Sam. It is time we formally accepted this fact instead of pussyfooting around it.

Third, our businesses, especially the software services lot, must be given a timeframe within which to reduce their exposure to the US market. They must be given target dates by which they should bring down this dependency, though these dates must obviously be discussed, negotiated and kept secret. The Indian government should offer policy and diversification support to find other markets.

Fourth, we must assume that the Tejas and AMCA projects, to the extent they are dependent on US engines or technology, are vulnerable and find ways to move away from them. If needed, they will need to be reworked or written off entirely.

Fifth, we must redouble our ties to France, Germany, Japan, Russia and Israel (among others) for key defence and technology partnerships, as we will always have greater leverage with them than the US.

Sixth, we must prioritise sovereign tech in everything from mail to social media to defence and cyber and information warfare technologies.

We must seriously re-evaluate our membership of the Quad, and instead focus on bilateral deals with Japan and Australia. As long as Quad depends on the US for validity, it will never work.

We have a huge amount of business and geopolitical rebalancing to do. While there is no need to talk back or make things nasty with the US, behind the scenes this is what must be our priority.